Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Closes September 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$33K
Bid / Ask
19% / 21%
Spread
1.60pp
Expert Signal
20%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian…
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
17% YES
Mar 18, 2026
Current
18% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 1.60 percentage points. The market closes on September 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1130016
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