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Markets/Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 12:41 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

37%YES

63%NO

Volume 24h

$42K

Liquidity

$325K

Bid / Ask

36% / 38%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

38%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

June

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

37%

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-20.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

32% YES — lowest in period

Mar 12, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 2, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 3, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 4, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 6, 2026

Biggest move: -8.0pp

64% → 56%

Mar 1, 2026

Peak probability

64% YES — highest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Current

38% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 37%99%

Buy YES@ 37¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 63¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $42K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/663583

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

Event Cluster

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