Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Closes June 30, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$322K
Liquidity
$979K
Bid / Ask
25% / 26%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
26%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
24% YES
Feb 22, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
56%
Feb 28, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 1, 2026
Biggest move: +29.5pp
25% → 55%
Mar 1, 2026
Peak probability
58% YES — highest in period
Mar 1, 2026
Current
26% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $322K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/958443
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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