Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 07:12 AM UTC

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$37K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+81.8pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23?

March

Full event →

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 22?

72%

above $70,000 on March 23?

39%

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 22?

19%

above $72,000 on March 23?

13%

between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?

between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 22?

between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 22?

between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?

between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22?

between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 22?

10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-14.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Biggest move: -12.5pp

24% → 12%

Mar 20, 2026

Peak probability

24% YES — highest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

1% YES (-0.4pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly9.1%

½ Kelly4.5%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 9.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $37K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598702