Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 23?

Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 23?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 12:11 PM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES

46%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

10% / 13%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and…

March

Full event →

between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 23?

55%

between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 23?

28%

between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 23?

10%

between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 23?

between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 23?

between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 23?

between $2,600 and $2,700 on March 23?

7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+29.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

21% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Trough probability

9% YES — lowest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: +40.0pp

10% → 50%

Mar 23, 2026

Current

50% YES (+40.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 55%99%

Buy YES@ 55¢

Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 45¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 23?" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607688

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