Markets/Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 12:22 PM UTC⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

10%YES

91%NO

Volume 24h

$136

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

7% / 12%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the…

2026

Full event →

Will the Republican Party control the Senate

51%

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate

10%

10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Current

13% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 10%99%

Buy YES@ 10¢

Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $136 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/943823