Markets/Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 05:46 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$886

Bid / Ask

8% / 19%

Spread

11.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-36.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

69% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

12% YES — lowest in period

Mar 3, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

42%

Mar 3, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

54%

Mar 5, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 6, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 7, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

22%

Mar 11, 2026

Biggest move: -39.5pp

52% → 12%

Mar 3, 2026

Current

33% YES (-3.0pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 14%99%

Buy YES@ 14¢

Edge

+3.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 87¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/693782