Markets/Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 02:59 PM UTC

Closes December 9, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$210

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Trough probability

3% YES — lowest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%

½ Kelly2.4%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $210 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1168136