Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$88K
Liquidity
$57K
Bid / Ask
19% / 20%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
20%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
June
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
87% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Trough probability
12% YES — lowest in period
Mar 21, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
41%
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: -35.0pp
67% → 32%
Mar 16, 2026
Current
20% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump visit China by April 30?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $88K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Trump visit China by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/706279
Correlated Markets
Explore all →Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.