Markets/Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 06:41 PM UTC

Closes September 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

73%YES

28%NO

Volume 24h

$21K

Liquidity

$65K

Bid / Ask

72% / 73%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

73%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian…

Full event →

the most seats in the next Russian parliament

96%

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats i

73%

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in t

17%

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (

Will the Communist Party of the Russian Feder

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (

the most seats in the next Russian parliament

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain th

Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next R

Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats

10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

74% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Current

73% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 73%99%

Buy YES@ 73¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.8%

½ Kelly0.9%

Buy NO@ 28¢

-1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" at 73% YES / 27% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 73%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on September 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 73%, NO 27%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1130012