Markets/Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 10:46 AM UTC

Closes June 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$52K

Liquidity

$67K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

2025

Full event →

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Biggest move: +5.6pp

3% → 8%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

10% YES — highest in period

Mar 9, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.4%

½ Kelly1.2%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $52K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/564166