Markets/Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?

Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:40 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

26%YES

74%NO

Volume 24h

$367

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

25% / 27%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

26%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-30.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Feb 25, 2026

Trough probability

27% YES — lowest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Feb 25, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Feb 27, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 1, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 2, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

55%

Mar 3, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 4, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

27%

Mar 6, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 12, 2026

Biggest move: -31.5pp

58% → 27%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

68% YES — highest in period

Feb 25, 2026

Current

28% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 18, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 26%99%

Buy YES@ 26¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 74¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $367 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/694938