Tariffs & Trade
US-China trade policy, tariff escalation, and global supply chain bets.
Trade policy prediction markets track the probability of new tariffs, trade agreements, and escalation between the US and its trading partners. These markets react quickly to executive orders and diplomatic developments, providing a faster signal than traditional policy analysis.
10+ open markets · updated live
Top Markets
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Warriors vs. Pistons
YES 0%NO 100%
Vol $2.5MEnds 3/20/2026
politics
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
YES 100%NO 0%
Vol $1.6MEnds 12/31/2026
politics
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 1%NO 99%
Vol $688KEnds 11/7/2028
sports
Warriors vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5
YES 0%NO 100%
Vol $370KEnds 3/20/2026
politics
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
YES 11%NO 89%
Vol $346KEnds 12/31/2026
politics
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
YES 1%NO 99%
Vol $288KEnds 3/31/2026
politics
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?
YES 0%NO 100%
Vol $217KEnds 3/31/2026
sports
Warriors vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5
YES 0%NO 100%
Vol $164KEnds 3/20/2026