Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?
April
Consensus Probability
33%
Weak23%
Polymarket41% avg · 5 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | 20% | $317K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | 63% | $107K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | 41% | $94K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? | 5% | $50K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | 77% | $47K | standalone |