ForecastMind

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

2026

Consensus Probability

5%
Weak39%
Polymarket3% avg · 20 markets

Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.

Contributing Markets

VenueMarketYESVolumeRole
PolymarketWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?8%$71Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3%$9Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?4%$8Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2%$7Kstandalone
PolymarketWill the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?4%$7Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1%$7Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1%$7Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1%$6Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2%$5Kstandalone
PolymarketWill UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3%$5Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?10%$3Kstandalone
PolymarketWill António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2%$2Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2%$2Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2%$2Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1%$1Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1%$1Kstandalone
PolymarketWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?9%$523standalone
PolymarketWill Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2%$503standalone
PolymarketWill Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1%$435standalone
PolymarketWill Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3%$255standalone
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Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — 5% Consensus | ForecastMind