Will Fidel Chura win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$754
Liquidity
$1K
Bid / Ask
1% / 11%
Spread
9.50pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Fidel Chura win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial…
2026
14 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Fidel Chura win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $754 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 9.50 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Fidel Chura win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1228189
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