ForecastMind
Markets/No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
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No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Closes April 28, 2026

Polymarket Price

35%YES
66%NO

Volume 24h

$803

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

33% / 36%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

35%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April…

April 2026

Full event →
no change in Fed interest rates after the Apr
94%
no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun
84%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25
64%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates a
35%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
11%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp
5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ b
4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
0%

13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 35%99%
Buy YES@ 35¢
Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 66¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?" at 35% YES / 65% NO. In the last 24 hours, $803 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 35%, NO 65%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1249980

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