Markets/Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:47 AM UTC

Closes June 17, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES

91%NO

Volume 24h

$60K

Liquidity

$64K

Bid / Ask

9% / 10%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after…

June 2026

Full event →

no change in Fed interest rates after the Apr

95%

no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun

85%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp

10%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ b

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic ra

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b

10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-20.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

29% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Trough probability

8% YES — lowest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -15.0pp

24% → 9%

Mar 18, 2026

Current

9% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 10%99%

Buy YES@ 10¢

Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $60K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 17, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/906973