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Markets/Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Closes April 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

95%YES
5%NO

Volume 24h

$328K

Liquidity

$651K

Bid / Ask

95% / 95%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

94%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April…

April 2026

Full event →
no change in Fed interest rates after the Apr
94%
no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun
84%
no change in Fed interest rates after the Jul
77%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25
65%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates a
32%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
10%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp
6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp
6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ b
5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
0%

18 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+7.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

87% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: -5.0pp

89% → 84%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

96% YES — highest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

94% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 95%99%
Buy YES@ 95¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.8%
½ Kelly1.9%
Buy NO@ 5¢

-3.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?" at 95% YES / 5% NO. In the last 24 hours, $328K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 94%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 95%, NO 5%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/669662

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Venue Divergence

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Event Cluster

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