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Markets/Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Closes July 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

16%YES
85%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$53K

Bid / Ask

15% / 16%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

15%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.2pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April…

April 2026

Full event →
no change in Fed interest rates after the Apr
95%
no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun
85%
no change in Fed interest rates after the Jul
77%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25
64%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates a
34%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp
7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp
6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ b
4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
0%

18 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Current

16% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 16%99%
Buy YES@ 16¢
Edge

+3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 85¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1654957

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