Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30?
Closes May 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$66K
Liquidity
$21
Bid / Ask
34% / 85%
Spread
51.00pp
Expert Signal
21%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
45% YES
Mar 22, 2026
Biggest move: -21.0pp
36% → 15%
Mar 22, 2026
Current
15% YES (-21.0pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30?" at 60% YES / 40% NO. In the last 24 hours, $66K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 51.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 60%, NO 40%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1667188
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