Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 60 by April 30?
Closes May 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$11K
Liquidity
$356
Bid / Ask
10% / 25%
Spread
15.00pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
54% YES
Mar 22, 2026
Trough probability
17% YES — lowest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
17%
Mar 22, 2026
Biggest move: -37.5pp
55% → 17%
Mar 22, 2026
Current
22% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 60 by April 30?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 15.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 60 by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1667193
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