Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24?
Closed March 24, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$294K
Liquidity
$42K
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24?
March
24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
51% YES
Mar 22, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 22, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 23, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
46%
Mar 24, 2026
Biggest move: -51.5pp
81% → 29%
Mar 24, 2026
Peak probability
86% YES — highest in period
Mar 24, 2026
Current
0% YES (-2.9pp recent)
Mar 24, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.5%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24?" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $294K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on March 24, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1683276
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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