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Markets/Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
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Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B

Closed March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

96%YES
4%NO

Volume 24h

$18K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

92% / 100%

Spread

7.80pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham…

Full event →
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) - ESL O
100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs PARIVISION (BO2) - ESL
100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs paiN Gaming (BO2) - ESL
100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO2) - E
100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs MOUZ (BO2) - ESL O
100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL On
96%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birm
50%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GamerLegion (BO2) -
50%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) -
50%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - ES
50%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO2) -
50%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs REKONIX (BO2) - ES
50%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Team Yandex (BO2) - ESL On
0%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO2) -
0%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit (BO2) - ESL One Bir
0%

15 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 96%99%
Buy YES@ 96¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 4¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 7.80 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1687059

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