Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Closes April 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
17% / 18%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
18%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
April
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
19% YES
Mar 24, 2026
Biggest move: +7.5pp
18% → 25%
Mar 25, 2026
Peak probability
25% YES — highest in period
Mar 25, 2026
Current
20% YES (+2.0pp recent)
Mar 25, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706766
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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