Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$235K
Liquidity
$103K
Bid / Ask
6% / 7%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
April
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
75% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
3% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
47%
Mar 2, 2026
Biggest move: -28.5pp
64% → 36%
Mar 2, 2026
Peak probability
84% YES — highest in period
Feb 28, 2026
Current
6% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-2.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $235K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1466150
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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