Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?
FM Estimate
2%Market Price
5%This event has 34 active outcome markets. Progressive Bulgaria (PB): 98%, AfD: 89%, the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S): 88%.
Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parlia
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $796 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 2.10pp. The market closes on April 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1742065