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Markets/Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?
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Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?

5%YES
95%NO
Vol 24h$796
Liquidity$4K
Bid / Ask4% / 6%
Spread2.10pp
ClosesApr 19, 2026

FM Estimate

2%

Market Price

5%
↑ Overpriced 2.9pp
Macro fundamentals-3.2pp
low confidence · 1 signals
Outcome Markets34 markets

This event has 34 active outcome markets. Progressive Bulgaria (PB): 98%, AfD: 89%, the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S): 88%.

Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parlia

5%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $796 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 2.10pp. The market closes on April 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1742065