Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$318K
Liquidity
$28K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $318K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1777503
This event has 31 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5?: 100%, Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 31?: 100%, Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?: 45%.
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
22% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: -27.0pp
30% → 3%
Mar 31, 2026
Peak probability
30% YES — highest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Current
3% YES (-27.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-7.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this