Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 31?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$55K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
9% / 11%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
10%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 31?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $55K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1800069
This event has 31 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5?: 100%, Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 31?: 100%, Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?: 45%.
Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 31?
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
41% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Trough probability
11% YES — lowest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: -13.5pp
36% → 22%
Mar 31, 2026
Current
24% YES (+12.5pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this