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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5?

Closes April 5, 2026

Polymarket Price

96%YES
4%NO

Volume 24h

$45K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

97% / 98%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $45K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1777589

Outcome Markets63 markets

This event has 63 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 3?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 3?: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5?

96%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+22.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

74% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Biggest move: -14.5pp

92% → 78%

Apr 2, 2026

Peak probability

97% YES — highest in period

Apr 3, 2026

Current

96% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 96%99%
Buy YES@ 96¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 4¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this