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Markets/Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
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Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

94%YES
6%NO

Volume 24h

$43K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

94% / 96%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

94%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

92% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

95% YES (+1.2pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 94%99%
Buy YES@ 94¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 6¢
Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $43K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 94%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1782687