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Markets/Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
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Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES
89%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

10% / 24%

Spread

13.70pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?

Full event →
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public
100%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public
99%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public
92%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
89%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
87%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
80%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
77%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
66%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
61%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
56%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
38%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
37%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
33%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
21%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
15%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol publi
10%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
7%
Over $120M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
7%
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
5%
Over $140M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
4%
Over $160M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
3%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol publ
1%

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +6.5pp

4% → 11%

Mar 26, 2026

Peak probability

20% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

11% YES (+6.0pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 11%99%
Buy YES@ 11¢
Edge

+3.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 89¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 13.70 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591780

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