Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
Closes July 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$16K
Liquidity
$52K
Bid / Ask
77% / 78%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
76%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
21 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
49% YES
Mar 19, 2026
Trough probability
21% YES — lowest in period
Mar 26, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 19, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Mar 24, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
63%
Mar 26, 2026
Biggest move: +39.0pp
24% → 63%
Mar 26, 2026
Current
63% YES (+27.0pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-2.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?" at 76% YES / 24% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 76%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 76%, NO 24%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1591771
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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