ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6?
Share on X

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

27%YES
74%NO

Volume 24h

$26K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

24% / 25%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $26K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792520

Outcome Markets35 markets

This event has 35 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 4?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 4?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 4?: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6?

27%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Apr 4, 2026

Current

27% YES (+2.0pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 27%99%
Buy YES@ 27¢
Edge

+1.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 74¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this