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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$39K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

5% / 5%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $39K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1792523

Outcome Markets35 markets

This event has 35 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 4?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 4?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 4?: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6?

4%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Apr 4, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.8pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢
Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.0%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this