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Markets/Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?
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Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

29%YES
71%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

28% / 29%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

29%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?" at 29% YES / 71% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 29%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 29%, NO 71%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813639

Outcome Markets25 markets

This event has 25 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 98%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nati: 90%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

34% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Trough probability

28% YES — lowest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Current

29% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 29%99%
Buy YES@ 29¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 71¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this