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Markets/Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation?
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Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

37%YES
63%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

36% / 38%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

37%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1816043

Outcome Markets25 markets

This event has 25 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nati: 91%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 37%99%
Buy YES@ 37¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 63¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

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