ForecastMind
Markets/Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation?
Share on X

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$168K

Liquidity

$79K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.70pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+5.3pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $168K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813651

Outcome Markets24 markets

This event has 24 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Addres: 88%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-3.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

3% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this