Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$1K
Bid / Ask
82% / 84%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
77%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation?" at 78% YES / 22% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 77%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 78%, NO 22%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813649
This event has 25 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 98%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nati: 90%.
Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Addres
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
83% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Current
80% YES (-3.0pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this