Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$40K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
66% / 69%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
63%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?" at 68% YES / 32% NO. In the last 24 hours, $40K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 68%, NO 32%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813642
This event has 25 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 98%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%, Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nati: 90%.
Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
73% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Trough probability
65% YES — lowest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
66% YES (+1.5pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this