ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?
Share on X

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?

Closes April 16, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
92%FIS
+1ppvs market 91%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 91% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.5% ↑, ETH -1.1% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.5% ↑, ETH -1.1% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑
+0.9pp
Live compute05:25 PM

Polymarket Price

91%YES
9%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

92% / 93%

Spread

1.60pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+5.5pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?" at 91% YES / 9% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 1.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 91%, NO 9%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928755

Outcome Markets28 markets

This event has 28 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 14: 100%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-4.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

95% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Current

91% YES (-2.9pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 91%99%
Buy YES@ 91¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 9¢
Edge

+4.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO+4.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this