Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?
Closes April 16, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.0pp above current market price; market at 7% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.5% ↑, ETH -1.0% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$18K
Bid / Ask
7% / 8%
Spread
0.60pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928764
This event has 28 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 14: 100%.
price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
16% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -6.2pp
13% → 6%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
6% YES (-6.2pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-6.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this