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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16?

Closes April 16, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
79%FIS
2ppvs market 81%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.0pp below current market price; market at 81% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.6% ↓, ETH -2.2% ↓, S&P +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.6% ↓, ETH -2.2% ↓, S&P +1.1% ↑
-2.0pp
Live compute07:30 PM

Polymarket Price

89%YES
12%NO

Volume 24h

$12K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

83% / 85%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

82%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.7pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16?" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 82%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928796

Outcome Markets37 markets

This event has 37 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14: 100%.

price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16?

89%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-10.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

92% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Biggest move: -7.0pp

89% → 82%

Apr 14, 2026

Current

82% YES (-7.0pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 89%99%
Buy YES@ 89¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.3%
½ Kelly2.2%
Buy NO@ 12¢

-4.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this