Markets/Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:19 PM UTC

Closes November 3, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

6%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$74K

Liquidity

$30K

Bid / Ask

6% / 6%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in…

2026

Full event →

the California Governor Election in 2026?

56%

the California Governor Election in 2026?

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-6.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Mar 8, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: +11.6pp

3% → 15%

Mar 23, 2026

Current

6% YES (-0.3pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

-1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 94¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.6%

½ Kelly0.8%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $74K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/628947