Markets/Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:48 AM UTC

Closes November 3, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

12%YES

88%NO

Volume 24h

$365K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

12% / 12%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in…

2026

Full event →

the California Governor Election in 2026?

56%

Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 Califor

25%

the California Governor Election in 2026?

12%

the California Governor Election in 2026?

23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+4.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Current

12% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 12%99%

Buy YES@ 12¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 88¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $365K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/628955