Markets/Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:37 PM UTC

Closes November 3, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

8%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$33K

Bid / Ask

7% / 9%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in…

2026

Full event →

the California Governor Election in 2026?

64%

Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 Califor

25%

the California Governor Election in 2026?

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-6.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

7% YES — lowest in period

Mar 15, 2026

Current

8% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

Edge

+6.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 93¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+6.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/628957