Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
Closes April 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$499K
Bid / Ask
20% / 21%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
21%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
2026
16 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Mar 9, 2026
Current
21% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/658931
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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