Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?
Closes June 3, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$418
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
31% / 39%
Spread
8.00pp
Expert Signal
35%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
2026
45 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?" at 35% YES / 65% NO. In the last 24 hours, $418 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 35%, NO 65%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679152
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