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Markets/Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?
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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

12%YES
88%NO

Volume 24h

$167

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

11% / 12%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $167 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692260

Outcome Markets28 markets

This event has 28 active outcome markets. J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 17%, J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before: 15%, Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 15%.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run be

12%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 12%99%
Buy YES@ 12¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 88¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this