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Markets/Will Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2027?
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Will Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES
92%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

8% / 9%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

9%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692308

Outcome Markets28 markets

This event has 28 active outcome markets. J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 17%, J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before: 15%, Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 15%.

Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2027?

9%

Topic Intelligence

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket9%anchor
PredictIt

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 9%99%
Buy YES@ 9¢
Edge

+5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 92¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+5.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this